Abstract

 An introduction and overview of the problems of the Aral Sea desiccation is presented.   The paper begins with an introductory section giving the geographic position, historical background of the problem, and mention of the special difficulties involved with the study of the problem.   The body of the article gives an overview of the major issues involved of the problem, and particular attention is directed to the various climatic changes to the region as a result of the Aral's desiccation.   The paper concludes with a survey of the various possible future scenarios for the Aral Sea and a "lessons learned" review.   The paper stresses the inter relatedness of the various physical, economic, political, and social issues involved, and the complexity of the problem.

1. Introduction

 The Aral Sea problem in the former Soviet Union is perhaps the most complete and complex environmental problem ever faced.   Decades of central planning and poor local decisions have caused the once vast inland sea to shrink, the agricultural conditions to deteriorate, the local public health to become among the worst in the former USSR, the soil to become increasingly polluted with agricultural chemicals and salt, the fisheries industry to be destroyed, relations between area states to become strained, and even the climate to change.   In this paper I will give a brief overview of the reasons behind the Aral Sea disaster, and the results of these on the Aral Sea and the region.   Though the effects of the disaster are varied and interrelated, I will pay particular attention to the climatic changes which have resulted.   It will be noted, however, that the majority of the problems are so interrelated; one influences many others, and they are not easily separated into discrete categories, nor covered fully in a document of this length.

2. Problems associated with study of conditions at the Aral Sea

 Study of the Aral Sea problem suffers from the same problems as other areas of study of the former USSR.   In addition, the period since the dissolution of the USSR has created new problems associated with Aral Sea research, while others have lessened.   There is, for example, no overall coordination of contemporary research on the Aral Sea problem, often resulting in problems of information and logistics between parties and states (Micklin, 1992, Requiem..., 1995).   One of the most difficult matters is that during the Soviet period, the accuracy of significant amounts of data were suspect, as the Soviet government systematically distorted facts and figures for propaganda and secrecy purposes.   This distortion continues in many areas of post-Soviet society as well, though I have only knowledge from areas other than the Aral Sea.

 In addition to the "historical" questionability of data, the emergence of the five former Soviet republics in the region as independent states has created its own set of problems.   Each state and region has its own perceptions of the Aral Sea problem, what the effects are, what must be done, what the and who is to blame.   This results in five occasionally widely varying sets of data relating to the Aral Sea, especially when water use and "need" is involved.   In addition, governments and other groups may use the data, sometimes exaggerated, as a political or ideological tool, in an attempt to influence opinion.   This can, at best, cause confusion, and worse, can lead to conflict or insurrection.

(removed all this middle nonsense here...)

8. Conclusion

 The problems of the Aral Sea region have their roots deep in Soviet ideology, central planning, and inefficiency.   The monoculture of cotton production in the region at the cost of the waters needed to sustain the Aral Sea has developed into the only possibility of maintaining the already low economic validity of much of the region.   To reverse the trend, and take less water from the Aral Sea tributaries would almost certainly have negative economic effects.   To continue the use of the water will continue the desiccation of the Aral Sea.   This will eventually result in a devastating decline of the agriculture in the region, as it has already resulted in the demise of the fisheries and public health.   Even if the water diversion stopped and the Aral regained some or all of its volume, the toxins in the water and soil would remain for a considerable period of time.   The states of the region are trapped in a nearly impossible situation arising from their historical and modern policy, and it seems unlikely that the problems resulting can or will be solved in the near future.   In addition, conditions will likely continue to deteriorate, and conflict over water resources in the region is a possibility for the future, as the states attempt to "work" the waters just a little bit more, in an attempt to extricate themselves from their situation.

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